Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, KA, India
My research group works on tropical climate variability with special emphasis on Indian summer monsoon.
Email:arch-at-iisc.ac.in
Tel: +91-80-2293-3074
We are organizing a seminar series on the variabilities of the boreal summer monsoon. We focus on the interannual to decadal variations of different characteristics of the summer monsoon over Asia in general and India in particular, intending to improve understanding and modeling.
THE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND HERE.Normally, remote forcing (teleconnection) to Indian summer monsoon are quantified simultaneously. This includes connecting summer monsoon rainfall to summer El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition. Can what happened in the past affect the present because of its signature in present climate through slow evolution of the climate system?
Using past data, we showed that if previous winter was a La Nina, the rainfall in current summer over India would reduce a bit. In other words, preceding winter La Nina increases the probability of a decrease in summer monsoon rainfall intensity. How much reduction? We showed that even if the present summer is ENSO neutral, the mean rainfall over India is on an average 4% below its long-term normal when it was preceded by La Nina. And if the present summer is El Nino (that normally causes decrease in rainfall), last winter's La Nina increases probability of drought. This was the first time we showed the asymmetry between La Nina and El Nino of the past season on Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Such delay in impact happens because of slow propagation of surface pressure anomalies in the subtropics as ENSO changes its state with season.
References:The frequency of extreme rainfall events of Indian summer monsoon has increased significantly during past seven decades. At the same time, the variance of low frequency intraseasonal oscillation (LF-ISO) and mean of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall decreased steadily. Are those contrasting changes physically connected?
In a recent research, we found that increase in extreme events during break phase of Indian summer monsoon can decrease its LF-ISO variance and seasonal mean. This is due to thermodynamic stabilization of the atmosphere and disorganization of large-scale circulation after an extreme rainfall event.
References:The date of onset of Indian summer monsoon shows substantial interannual variations. Monsoon onset isochrones gradually advance from southern tip of India to north and central regions, and then to northwest regions of the country. What determines the interannual variations of onset date over central India?
We show that in May, at least a month before the onset over central India, surface pressure anomalies over west Asia is lower than normal for an early onset year. A lower than normal surface pressure increases the strength of the cross equatorial Somaji Jet than brings more moisture over Indian land. Increase in moisture decreases stability of the atmosphere, and helps early onset over both south and central India. Similar results are found in numerical experimentsusing a state of the art general circulation model.
Such surface pressure anomalies propagate from west to east along 20-30N latitude band with speed equivalent to mid-latitude Rossby wave. This advances the potential predictability of date of onset of monsoon.
References:Chakraborty, Arindam and Priyanshi Singhai, 2021: Asymmetric response of the Indian summer monsoon to positive and negative phases of major tropical climate patterns, Scientific Reports, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01758-6
Nikumbh, A. C., Arindam Chakraborty, G. S. Bhat, and D.M.W. Frierson, 2021: Multiscale interactions between monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations and low pressure systems that produce heavy rainfall events of different spatial extents, Journal of Climate, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0231.1
Rohit Chakraborty, Arindam Chakraborty, Ghouse Basha, Venkat Ratnam Madineni, 2021: Lightning occurrences and intensity over the Indian region: long-term trends and future projections, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 07/2021; 21: 11161-11177.
Rajendran, K., Surendran, S., Varghese, S.J. and Arindam Chakraborty, 2021: Do seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon rainfall show better skill with February initial conditions?, Current Science, 120 (12) 1863-1874
2020Arushi, PV, Arindam Chakraborty, and RS Nanjundiah 2020: Recent Weakening in MJO Related Convective Activity over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03423-w.
Nikumbh, A. C., Arindam Chakraborty, G. S. Bhat, and D.M.W. Frierson, 2020: Large-scale extreme rainfall-producing synoptic systems of the Indian summer monsoon., Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088403
Jalihal, C., J. Srinivasan, and Arindam Chakraborty, 2020: Different precipitation response over land and ocean to orbital and greenhouse gas forcing, Scientific Reports (Nature), doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68346-y
Agrawal, S., and Arindam Chakraborty, 2020: Evaluation of ESACCI satellite soil moisture product using in-situ observations over India, Journal of Earth System Science, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-01384-2
Srivastava, G., Arindam Chakraborty, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, 2020: Multidecadal variations in ENSO-Indian summer monsoon relationship at sub-seasonal timescales, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03122-6
Singhai, P., Shibin Balakrishnan, E. N. Rajagopal, Arindam Chakraborty, 2020: Phase inconsistency as a major source of error in NGFS forecast, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05148-y
Karmakar, N, Arindam Chakraborty, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, 2020: Influence of global sea surface temperature on ultra‐low frequency variability in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi:10.1002/qj.3715
2019Chakraborty, Arindam, 2019: Zonally symmetric vs asymmetric North Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature influence on Indian summer monsoon through modulation of upper tropospheric circulation, Mausam, 70, 4 (October 2019), 753-766 [PDF]
Jalihal, C., J. Srinivasan, and Arindam Chakraborty, 2019: Modulation of Indian monsoon by water vapor and cloud feedback over the past 22,000 years, Nature Communinications, 10, 5701 (2019) doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13754-6
Jana, K, D Sengupta, S Kundu, Arindam Chakraborty and P Shaw, 2019: The Statistical Face of a Region Under Monsoon Rainfall in Eastern India, Journal of the American Statistical Association, DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2019.1681275
Nikumbh, A.C., Arindam Chakraborty, and G.S. Bhat, 2019: Recent spatial aggregation tendency of rainfall extremes over India, Scientific Reports, 9, 10321, doi:10.1038/s41598-019-46719-2
Jalihal, C., JHC Bosmans, J Srinivasan, and Arindam Chakraborty, 2019: The response of tropical precipitation to Earth's precession: the role of energy fluxes and vertical stability, Climate of the Past, 15, 449–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019
Agrawal, S., Arindam Chakraborty, N. Karmakar, Simon Moulds, Ana Mijic and Wouter Buytaert, 2019: Effects of winter and summer-time irrigation over Gangetic Plain on the mean and intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 53: 3147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04691-7
Das, S., D. Sengupta, and Arindam Chakraborty, 2019: The Madden‐Julian oscillation in an aquaplanet‐like general circulation model with and without continents. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 1459–1476. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001455
Srivastava, G, Arindam Chakraborty, and R.S. Nanjundiah, 2019: Multidecadal see-saw of the impact of ENSO on Indian and West African summer monsoon rainfall. Climate Dynamics 52.11, 6633-6649. [Bibtex Citation]
2018Shawki, D, A. Voulgarakis, Arindam Chakraborty, M. Kasoar, and J. Srinivasan, 2018: The South Asian Monsoon Response to Remote Aerosols: Global and Regional Mechanisms. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), doi:10.1029/2018jd028623.
Chakraborty, Arindam, 2018: Preceding winter La Niña reduces Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 054030, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabdd5.
Jain, D., Arindam Chakraborty, and R.S. Nanjundaiah, 2018: A Mechanism for the Southward Propagation of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Bay of Bengal. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 123, 3893-3913, doi:10.1002/2017JD027470.
Ghosh, R., Arindam Chakraborty, and R.S. Nanjundiah, 2018: Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late Indian monsoon intensity in a GCM. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131, 319–333, doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1970-z.
2017Karmakar, N., Arindam Chakraborty, and R.S. Nanjundiah, 2017: Increased sporadic extremes decrease the intraseasonal variability in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Scientific Reports, 7, 7824, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-07529-6.
Chakraborty, Arindam, and S. Agrawal, 2017:Role of west Asian surface pressure in summer monsoon onset over central India. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 074002.
Arushi PV, Arindam Chakraborty, and R.S. Nanjundiah, 2017: Orographic control of the Bay of Bengal cold pool rainfall. Journal of Earth System Science, 126, 111, doi:10.1007/s12040-017-0892-1.
Bhattacharya, A, Arindam Chakraborty, and V. Venugopal, 2017: Role of aerosols in modulating cloud properties during active-break cycle of Indian summer monsoon. Climate Dynamics, 49(5-6), 2131-2145.
Karmakar, N., Arindam Chakraborty, and R.S. Nanjundiah, 2017: Space-Time Evolution of the Low- and High-Frequency Intraseasonal Modes of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Monthly Weather Review, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0075.1. [PDF]
2016Agrawal, S., and Arindam Chakraborty, 2016: Role of surface hydrology in determining the seasonal cycle of Indian summer monsoon in a general circulation model. Hydrology Earth Syst Sci Discuss, 1-33, doi:10.5194/hess-2016-591 [PDF]
Chakraborty, Arindam, 2016: A synoptic scale perspective of heavy rainfall over Chennai in November 2015, Current Science, 111 (1), 201-207. [PDF]
Das S, D Sengupta, Arindam Chakraborty, J Sukhatme, R Murtugudde, 2016: Low-frequency intraseasonal variability in a zonally symmetric aquaplanet model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. 2016 Dec 1;128(6):697-713.
2015Karmakar, N., Arindam Chakraborty, Ravi S Nanjundiah, 2015: Decreasing intensity of monsoon low frequency intraseasonal variability over India, Environmental Research Letters, 10, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054018.
2014Chakraborty, A., Ravi S. Nanjundiaha, and J. Srinivasan, 2014: Local and remote impacts of direct aerosol forcing on Asian monsoon, Int. J. Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3826.
Bhattacharya, A., Arindam Chakraborty and V Venugopal, 2014: Variability of cloud liquid water and ice over South Asia from TMI estimates, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1978-3.
Chakraborty, A, and Ravi S Nanjundiah, 2014: Role of Orography in Modulating Space-time Scales of Convection over South Asia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-013-0963-4.
2013Jain, D. K., Arindam Chakraborty, and R S Nanjundiah, 2013: Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 122:159-173.
Ramasesha, S and Arindam Chakraborty, 2013: Power generation using wind energy in northwest Karnataka, India, Current Science, 104, 757-761.
2012Chakraborty, A and R S Nanjundiah, 2012: Space-time Scales of Northward Propagation of Convection During Boreal Summer, Monthly Weather Review, 140, 3857-3866.
Krishnamurti, T. N., Anu Simon, Aype Thomas, Akhilesh Mishra, Dev Sikka, Dev Niyogi, Arindam Chakraborty, Li Li, 2012: Modeling of Forecast Sensitivity on the March of Monsoon Isochrones from Kerala to New Delhi, The First 25 Days, J. Atmospheric Science, 69, 2465-2487.
Meehl, Gerald A., Julie M. Arblaster, Julie M. Caron, H. Annamalai, Markus Jochum, Arindam Chakraborty, Raghu Murtugudde, 2012: Monsoon Regimes and Processes in CCSM4. Part I: The Asian–Australian Monsoon. J. Climate, 25, 2583–2608.
Jain, D. K., Arindam Chakraborty, and R S Nanjundiah, 2012: On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa–Schubert convection scheme, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 115, 1-13.
2010Chakraborty, A., 2010: The Skill of ECMWF Medium Range Forecasts During the Year of Tropical Convection 2008, Monthly Weather Review., 138, 3787-3805. [PDF]
Krishnamurti, T. N., Arindam Chakraborty, and A. K. Mishra, 2010: Improving multimodel forecasts of the vertical distribution of heating using the TRMM profiles, J. Climate, 23, 1089-1094.
2009Krishnamurti, T. N., R. Krishnamurti, A. D. Sagadevan, Arindam Chakraborty, W. K. Dewar, C. A. Clayson, and J. F. Tull, 2009: Space-time stuctures of earth-quakes, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 105, 69-83.
Chakraborty, A., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2009: Improving global model precipitation forecasts over India from downscaling and FSU superensemble. Part II: Seasonal climate, Monthly Weather Review, 137, 2736-2757.
Krishnamurti, T. N., A. K. Mishra, Arindam Chakraborty, and M. Rajeevan, 2009: Improving Global Model Precipitation Forecasts over India Using Downscaling and the FSU Superensemble. Part I: 1–5-Day Forecasts, Monthly Weather Review, 137, 2713-2735.
Krishnamurti, T. N., A. D. Sagadevan, Arindam Chakraborty, A. K. Mishra, A. Simon, and S-H Chen, 2009: Improving Multimodel Forecast of Monsoon Weather over China using FSU Superensemble, Advances in Atmospheric Sciencese, 26, 813-839.
Krishnamurti, T. N., Arindam Chakraborty, Andrew Martin, William K Lau, Kyu-Myong Kim, Yogesh Sud and Gregory Walker, 2009: Impact of Arabian Sea Pollution on the Bay of Bengal Winter Monsoon Rains, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere, 114, D06213, doi:10.1029/2008JD010679.
Chakraborty, A., Ravi S. Nanjundiah, and J. Srinivasan, 2009: Impact of African Orography and Indian Summer Monsoon on the Low-Level Somali Jet, International Journal of Climatology, 29, 983-992.
2008Chakraborty, A., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2008: Improved forecasts of diurnal cycle in tropics using multiple global models. Part II: Asian Summer Monsoon, Journal of Climate, 21, 4045–4067.
Krishnamurti, T. N., C. Gnanaseelan, A. K. Mishra and Arindam Chakraborty, 2008: Improved Forecasts of Diurnal Cycle in Tropics Using Multiple Global Models. Part I: Precipitation, Journal of Climate, 21, 4029–4043.
2007Krishnamurti, T. N., Arindam Chakraborty, R. Krishnamurti, W. K. Dewar, and C. Clayson, 2007: Passage of intraseasonal waves in the subsurface oceans, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030496.
Chakraborty, A., T. N. Krishnamurti and C. Gnanaseelan, 2007: Prediction of the Diurnal Cycle using a Multimodel Superensemble. Part II: Clouds, Monthly Weather Review, 135, 4097-4116.
'Krishnamurti, T. N., C. Gnanaseelan, and Arindam Chakraborty, 2007: Prediction of the Diurnal Cycle using a Multimodel Superensemble. Part I: Precipitation, Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3613-3632.
Ross, R. S., Arindam Chakraborty, Anthony Chen, and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2007: Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Caribbean Region using a Multi-Model Superensemble, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, doi: 10.1007/s00703-006-0234-3.
Sirdas, S., Robert S. Ross, T. N. Krishnamurti and Arindam Chakraborty, 2007: Evaluation of the FSU Synthetic Superensemble Performance for Seasonal Forecasts over the Euro-Mediterranean Region, Tellus-A, 59, 50-70.
2006Chakraborty, A., R. S. Nanjundiah, and J. Srinivasan, 2006: Theoretical aspects of the onset of Indian summer monsoon from perturbed orography simulations in a GCM, Annales Geophysicae, 24, 2075-2089.
Krishnamurti, T. N., Arindam Chakraborty, R. Krishnamurti, W. K. Dewar, C. A. Clayson, 2006: Seasonal Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Using a Suite of 13 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Models, Journal of Climate, 19, 6069-6088.
Chakraborty, A., T. N. Krishnamurti, 2006: Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Using a Suite of 13 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models, Monthly Weather Review, 134, 1697-1721.
Prior to 2006Chakraborty, A., S. K. Satheesh, R. S. Nanjundiah, and J. Srinivasan, 2004: Impact of absorbing aerosols on the simulation of climate in the Indian region in an atmospheric general circulation model. Annales Geophysicae., 22, 1421-1434.
Chakraborty, A., and J. Srinivasan, 2003: Comparison of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere from INSAT and ERBE, Mausam, 54, 299-314.
Chakraborty, A., R. S. Nanjundiah, and J. Srinivasan, 2002: Role of Asian and African orography in Indian summer monsoon., Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10.1029/2002GL015522.
Bhat, G. S., Arindam Chakraborty, R. S. Nanjundiah and J. Srinivasan, 2002: Vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere during active and weak phases of convection over the north Bay of Bengal: Observation and model results, Current Science, 83, 296-302.
Books/Chapters and Popular ArticlesArindam Chakraborty and J Srinivasan, 2019: Indian Summer Monsoon, Research News, Current Science, 117
Deepeshkumar Jain, Arindam Chakraborty and Ravi S. Nanjundiah, 2019: Convective Available Potential Energy and Precipitation in a Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon, in Current Trends in the Representation of Physical Processes in Weather and Climate Models, Eds: David Randall, J Srinivasan, RS Nanjundiah, P Mukhopadhyay, Springer Atmospheric Sciences, 113-138.
Arindam Chakraborty, 2016: The Inscrutable monsoon? Current Science, 111 (8), 1305-1306.
Affiliation: DST INSPIRE Faculty at the Divecha Centre for Climate Change. Previously: Raman PostDoctoral Fellow at the Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
References: Rohit Chakraborty, Arindam Chakraborty, Ghouse Basha, Venkat Ratnam Madineni, 2021: Lightning occurrences and intensity over the Indian region: long-term trends and future projections, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 07/2021; 21: 11161-11177.
(Along with Prof GS Bhat)
Thesis Topic: Extreme Rainfall: Characteristics and Mechanism
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Thesis Topic: Land-atmosphere Interaction
Thesis Topic: Seasonal Prediction and Teleconnection
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PMRF Fellow
Thesis Topic: Decadal Variability of Monsoon and Teleconnection
(Along with Prof GS Bhat)
Thesis Topic: Planetary Boundary Layer
(Along with Prof J Srinivasan)
Thesis Topic: Global monsoon variability at the paleo time scales
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(Along with Prof Debasis Sengupta)
Thesis Topic: Tropical intraseasonal oscillations in idealized framework
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